Archive for the ‘Economy’ Category

A Solution to Your Retirement Problem: A Look at Panama vs. the U.S.?

Monday, December 10th, 2012

We recently reviewed a brand new Forbes listing of the Top Foreign Retirement Havens.

We went through each trying to decide what the editors of Forbes saw in each country and where retirees relocating to these locals might find savings.

If you recall, the top destinations on their list were really more expensive except for the cost of rent.  However, two popular retirement locations, Panama and Thailand, were lower across the board from food to meals and entertainment and rent.

So in this post, I would like to walk you through why it might make sense for a U.S. retiree to consider retirement in a place like Panama.

Why Panama?

If you recall Forbes states Panama “welcomes retirees with its pensionado program — discounts on everything from utility bills and transportation, to restaurants and movies. Plus, you don’t need to worry about currency risks, since they use the U.S. dollar. If you hate humidity, don’t settle in Panama City (this is Costa Viejo, the historic part of the city), but visit when you need low-cost, quality medical care; Punta Pacifica hospital there is affiliated with Johns Hopkins.”

Likewise Numbeo.com lists CPI at just 40.99 vs. a 100 score for the U.S.  It also notes a rent index of just 25.87 and a grocery index of 63.33.  Finally, a restaurant index of 36.79.

We also noted that Lonely Planet’s forum, stated that Panama had a very liberal retirement visa program which was specifically laid out on their embassy site.

The Retirees

So let’s assume we have a husband and wife, Gus and Dorthy Stratton.  They are both already newly retired and living in the U.S.

Both are drawing the average social security payout of $1,200 per month.

The couple has already sold their home and is living off the dividends and interest from that portfolio ($500,000), which is roughly 2.5% per annum.

The couple hope to preserve principle for emergencies and to leave a legacy to their children.

The Income Equation

So as we stated above, both Gus and Dorthy are receiving a social security pension from the U.S. government of about $14,400 per year.  This will not change whether they live in the U.S. or not. They also receive dividends and interest of about $12,500 per year. Since Panama uses the U.S. dollar as its functional currency, there are no currency or exchange gains or losses. The Strattons would thus have the following income.

12-10-2012 8-49-12 AM

The Expense Side – The Reason For Considering This Move

Now here is where the rubber meets the road.  The expenses below are actual expenses (rounded) from one of my retired clients.

What I want you to notice is that this couple is underwater annually living here in the U.S. with their current cost structure.  This means they are drawing this annual overage from savings and therefore jeopardizing their future income stream.

In many cases couples go back to work (see Retirement: A Sad Story of Common Pitfalls) to make up this difference.

So let’s take a look at these expenses adjusted for the Numbeo.com price indexes above for rent, food, and groceries.

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Obviously, the first thing you can note is the deficit in income vs. spending disappears.  We move from a $11,000 annual deficit to a $5,000 annual surplus. Note also I included an extra $2,000 in travel costs on the Panama side of the ledger for travel to the U.S. to visit family.

The costs of rent, food and meals and entertainment are just so much lower in Panama that the retiree can effectively make up for being under prepared for retirement.

So what are your thoughts?  Have you ever considered such a move?  Tell us your stories.

5 Easy Steps to Avoiding the Fiscal Cliff

Monday, November 26th, 2012

It seems the media cannot go a single day without reporting on the alleged fiscal cliff of expiring tax cuts, incentives and new tax initiatives under ObamaCare (The Patient Protection and Affordability Care Act).

However is this really a cliff or more something the Average American should just be aware of in their planning?

Will we really fall hard to our financial deaths or just slowly slide towards less prosperity?

fiscal-cliff

We believe when Bill Gross of PIMCO coined the phrase “Fiscal Cliff,” he had no idea the media impact this phrase would generate.  I think even he would agree, the media has blown this way out of proportions.

Sure if you earn more than $250,000, you will pay more in taxes. However study after study has shown that the wealthy just adjust their planning around the tax code at the time.  Through smart planning, they generally pay the same level of taxes no matter what Uncle Sam throws at them.

So how can we take a clue from the wealthy?  Simply by planning around the “fiscal cliff.”

Here are five easy steps to doing so:

First Step – Maximize Your Deductible Retirement Contributions

Maximize your contributions to tax deferred accounts for which you receive a current tax deduction or income exclusion.  This would include deductible IRAs and 401(k)s to the extent of the law.  See our post on IRA and Retirement Plan Limits for 2013 for future contribution limits.   2012 Limitations are available from the IRS website.

This will reduce your taxable income in the face of rising personal tax rates.   It will also allow you to lower your adjusted gross income, allowing you to take more of your itemized deductions and personal exemptions, which will once again be subject to phase out for certain high income taxpayers.

Example: Your 401k plan has a 2012 contribution limit of $17,000.  You earn $80,000 with your employer, but chose to contribute up to the match of your employer…say 3%.  So your contribution is just $2,400.  So you can start now withholding the maximum percentage your plan will allow.  This will allow you some further tax savings in 2012 and save you even more taxes in 2013 when rates will likely be higher.

Second Step – Accelerate Compensation and Income

Usually we are talking about deferring income, but with rates likely to rise substantially, it may be wise to accelerate income into 2012.  If you have the flexibility, accelerate the recognition of income into 2012 when rates will be lower.  This would include all the following:

  • If you plan to sell certain securities or investments, recognizing capital gains in 2012 vs. 2013;
  • Push your employer to pay employee bonuses at end of 2012, not January 2013.
  • If your company grants stock options, it may be wise to exercise them in 2012 vs. 2013.  Realize that exercising the option is not always a taxable event; sale of the stock is almost always a taxable event.
  • If you are self employed, make sure all clients get billed before year end and work hard to complete and bill jobs in progress.
  • Take a cue from Steve Wynn of Wynn Resorts and consider taking C Corporation dividends in 2012 vs. 2013.
  • Consider a traditional IRA to Roth IRA conversion.  Although, I am not a huge fan of this, if you are going to do this 2012 is probably a better year to do so.
  • If you are selling your home, try to accelerate the closing to occur in 2012.

You get the idea!  The goal here is to pay tax on income you are going to receive anyways in 2012 at lower tax rates than you would pay if you waited till 2013.

Third Step – Defer deductions till 2013

So if rates are to rise, are you better off using a deduction in 2012 or 2013?  This is not a trick question.

The answer is probably “no.” Your deductions are likely worth more in 2013 than 2012.  So here are some ways to defer deductions until 2013:

  • Make December charitable gifts on January 1st.
  • Pay estimated state tax payments in January when due instead of accelerating the payment to December.
  • If your property taxes are due in November – May (as is the case here in Florida), analyze whether it is better to take the early payment discount or get a larger deduction in 2013 for payment in 2013.
  • If you are a cash basis, small business owner, sit on as many bills as reasonable and customary until January 1st.

Again, this is probably just the tip of the iceberg.  However, if you can defer deductions it may help some (not all) taxpayers lower their tax bill.

Fourth Step – Take Advantage of Expiring Deductions

Not all deductions should be deferred.  Make sure you take deductions for expiring tax provisions.  These provisions include:

  • Bonus depreciation and higher limit Section 179 write offs – Click here for more.
  • Accelerate health care costs in 2012 if there is a chance you will exceed 7.5% of your Adjusted Gross Income.  In 2013, this threshold moves to 10% of Adjusted Gross Income.

Here the goal is to maximize available one-time or limited time deductions.

Fifth Step – Small is the New Big! (sounds like a book from Seth Godin)

ObamaCare starts phasing in in 2012.  Many of the provisions exclude small businesses with 50 or few employees.  I recently saw where Congress and the President were considering mandating 3% contributions to a government run retirement plan.  This would be mandated for firms with 5 or more employees.

Whether this comes to pass or not, there is a definite trend here.  Be big….very big or be small….very small if you are a business owner.  Don’t be in the middle!

My suggestion is that business owners start thinking small.  How can I outsource?  How can I divide my business into smaller businesses.

Alternatively, who can I combine with to create a larger business?  How can I gain economies of scale.

The key is to get on one side of the ledger or the other.  The real losers from all the government’s mandates will be the middle market businesses.  You know the very ones they claim they want to protect!

So now a word of caution.  Please go see your tax professional before implementing any of the ideas above.   Also these ideas may not fit your specific tax situation, so please have a qualified professional help you with your year-end planning.

Please let me hear your ideas.  Please leave a comment.

Seniors Worried About Their Portfolios: Vote Romney!

Friday, October 19th, 2012

This headline is from Charles R. Schwab, whose name has become forever connected to the firm he founded, Charles Schwab & Co., a leader in personal finance.  This is the advice he provided taxpaying seniors in Tampa on Wednesday as he campaigned for Mitt Romney in Florida, according to the Tampa Bay Times.

He went on to tell the Times: “I don’t think they’ll have a real chance in the future.  This present administration has completely abdicated its responsibility for the growth of this country”

charles_schwab

Now while I agree with the vote Romney portion of his plea and some of his assertions that we need growth in this country, the portion of his advice I take some issue with is to pit seniors against the present administration.

Yes, there is some blame to placed on the Obama Administration for QE1, 2, 3…. to Infinity.  Obviously, this intervention artificially holds down rates on bank savings, treasuries and CDs.  However, come on seniors you have choices! You don’t need to take low rates sitting down!

If I were counseling all seniors, I would direct them away from fixed income.  As we approach zero treasury yields, it is only logical that rates must at some point go up.  What is perceived as a safe bet gets more dangerous by the day!

I would instead direct them to think about total return portfolios, not coupon clipping.

I know!  But the risk!  I have heard it all before.

The fact of the matter is that you have not done your homework!

Market risk can be managed and I am sure you would agree that you need better overall returns on your retirement savings.

So what might this look like?  I would recommend a portfolio with a diverse range of holdings from exposure in dividend stocks to commodities.  This will help you keep up with the hidden cost of inflation.  I know the government says there is no inflation, but it’s there…..just look at your food bill.

I would also advise seniors to look differently at how their funds are managed.  It is not enough to have just “buy and hold” as your only portfolio strategy.  We recommend clients include both “buy and hold” and trend following in their toolbox of portfolio strategies.

Why you may ask?  Well first, I would recommend you see our video “How to Get Rid of Your Investment Worries Once and For all.”  Then I would tell you that the trend following may cost you some return in an bull market, but will save your assets in a bear market.  The combination of the two strategies will enhance your returns and smooth the volatility.

Finally, we would then set up an automatic payment to you each month out of this portfolio’s principal and income just like you were clipping coupons.

Let’s say you are a doom and gloom senior.  What then?

Again this is the solution for you.  At InTrust we overlay even the “buy and hold” portfolios with a slow moving trend following model.  When that model flashes bear market, we get to cash, treasuries or gold.

So unless the world melts down in a day, you are covered.  So what is your next step?  Get a Free Portfolio review.

Alternatively, give us your thoughts.  Please comment below.

QE Forever!

Wednesday, October 3rd, 2012

September’s new round of Quantitative Easing (QE) took many of us by surprise, including me.  I expected QE3, but not this close to an election and certainly not forever.  I would never have guessed there would be not time frame on the Fed’s mortgage backed security (MBS) purchases.

Most of you know where I stand on QE!  QE is not good for this country and it’s taxpayers.  Too bad the Federal Reserve doesn’t care!  You do know they work for the banks don’t you?

If you have the time I would recommend you read The Creature from Jekyll Island.  It chronicles the founding of the Federal Reserve and the group of men who pushed for it’s formation.  It is amazing how we have been snowed about the Central Banker’s real purpose here and globally.

protester-qe-ron-paul

That being said, Wayne and I have had a number of discussions (him emailing due to his tongue condition and me talking) about the next step for the Fed.

What does the latest round of QE do?  Are they done?  What could they possibly do next?

Another trend follower friend and manager, Rob Robbins of EverTrade Global, sent me a recent Credit Suisse’s Global Equity Strategy Research Report.   These reports usually bore me (especially as a trend follower), but this one was all about the Fed’s next step and the likely beneficiaries.

Here is a summary of what they are recommending for their clients:

“We think there is a strong chance of synchronized QE by year-end. QE will increasingly become more aggressive (i.e. open-ended as the Fed have announced and become more unconventional as in the case of the Bank of England).”

“We continue to believe that the best way to stabilize government debt-to-GDP and reduce unemployment is to push the 10-year TIPS yield down to minus 1.5% to minus 2% for a generation. We believe QE works by driving up inflation expectations (forcing consumers and corporates to dis-save and improve debt funding arithmetic). We think some of the costs (rising commodity prices and pension liabilities) have been exaggerated.”

Here are their client recommendations:

Equities. We think inflation expectations continue to rise, re-rating equities until inflation hits 4%. Equities peaked 5-6 weeks after the end of QE1 and 2.

■Cheap real asset plays. US & German housing, UK REITS.

■Dividend yield. If bond yields remain low, high dividend yield stocks should outperform.

■Cyclical stocks should be supported as QE3 is occurring as US macro surprises turn positive; a higher starting point than when QE1 and 2 began.

■Index-linked bond proxies (such as TIPS).

■Gold.

So what can we make of this?  Obviously, Wayne and I are not in the know as I would have bet the Fed was done until after the election.

It appears the Street is expecting additional QE by year-end in a coordinated effort by the major developed nations.

This QE, if they are correct, will lead all nations to essentially embrace the same strategy of massive money printing trying to hold to current debt-to-GDP levels, while hopefully reducing unemployment.

Folks, this is a recipe for disaster and they know it.  Their only goal is to give the banks more time to heal at the expense of the taxpayer, the retiree and U.S. dollar currency.

We may have stronger banks in the end, but the currency will be dead and inflation will rein supreme in my opinion.  Based on the fact that Credit Suisse is recommending gold, cyclical stocks, indexed bonds and real assets plays, they would seem to agree with this thesis.

The good news for our clients is we invest in all those areas through ETFs and our strategies.  Also whether this drives markets higher or lower, we are prepared to follow the trend.

What do you think?  Will QE be the end for the dollar?  How will future QE impact you?

4 Steps High Income Earners Can Take To Feel Less Stress Over Their Job Security

Tuesday, September 25th, 2012

In our last post, Job Security is Stressing Out High Income Earners we highlighted a Bankrate.com survey that showed that of high income employees (those making more than $75,000 per year) only 21% felt their jobs were more secure today than a year ago.  Down from just 26% in 2011 in a similar survey.

We pointed out some conclusions we could draw from the survey and I promised to provide some ideas on how high income earners could overcome this rising stress over job security based on my own experiences.

stress-free (1)

So what can high income earners do to feel more secure, less stressed and in a better position to weather job insecurity?

Like all things, they must realize the best solution is to prepare for the unexpected.   The old Boy Scout motto! Be Prepared!

When our business fell off and my income declined following the 2007-2008 bear market, I saw first hand how important it was to be prepared.  Fortunately, I had already done the steps I am going to lay out for you.

So what is your first course of action?

First, put something away in the bank. $500-$1,000 would be a good start.  This gets your saving juices flowing!  According to the Chicago Tribune, a whopping 28% of Americans have no emergency savings.  That is criminal!

Second, after you have this initial savings in place, it is time to get busy.  Now let’s put away 3-6 months of your current income for emergencies.

I can hear you now…”Jeff, you have got to be crazy!”  However, I am here to tell you that you can do this!  It might mean swearing off Starbucks, holding a garage sale, cancelling cable or even taking a second job, but you can do this!

Think about how much more secure you would feel if you had 3-6 months of savings in the bank.  Even if your worst nightmare was realized and you were laid off, you would have the means to find the right opportunity….not just any opportunity.

Third, get out of debt. Debt is killing America!  The Average American has 12 credit cards and 20% are maxed out.  41% just pay the minimum payment.   The average household balance is $15,958 or about $8,000 per person.

Attack that debt using a debt snowball approach.  Yes, there is an App for that!  See our post Help in Your Fight Against Debt.

If you are not one of the more than 5 million with fancy new iPhones 5’s (like yours truly with an Android phone), go to this same post for a spreadsheet you can use to do the debt snowball in excel.

The basic premise is that you pay at least the minimum on all credit cards and apply your extra cash flow to one credit card to pay more than the minimum.  When that card is paid off, you apply the same total dollars to your remaining credit card debt (one card at a time).  Each card you pay off allows you to snowball your cash flow to more quickly pay off the debt until you are credit card debt free.

Finally, learn to live with a budget. Yes, I have heard all the excuses, but quite frankly you have no real idea where your money goes without one and no idea how to control it until you start to monitor your spending.

So let’s recap:

  1. Save $500 – $1,000.
  2. Now add to this until you have 3-6 months of your salary put away and easily accessible.
  3. Pay off your debt starting with your high interest credit cards using the debt snowball.
  4. Finally, develop and live within a budget.

What is the payoff?  Peace of mind and less stress!  Trust me it is worth it!

So let’s hear your horror stories.  I know some of you have tried these basic steps.

What has helped you succeed or what has kept you from making it through all these steps?

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