​It’s the end of summer, what can I say.  My vacation is upon me, I am tired and ready for some rest.  The result is a Miscellany of short updates where my mind would not allow me to put together a well thought out blog post.  Bad mind!  Get some rest!

​I know these to phrases no longer go together (high yields and cash).  However, in our endless search for yield for clients, we did discover that the crypto space is paying yields up to 8.8% on stable coins, their version of cash.  In today’s world that is a great yield!

​Yes, it is still a bit of the wild west, but one of my favorite Macro investors, Raoul Pal of Real Vision, believes the crypto space will increase by 500X over the next decade.  If that is the case, can you really afford to ignore the space and the higher yields?
 
We believe that the real opportunity here is for the blockchain leaders to pair with governments around the world to rollout digital versions of their currencies.  We can already see this happening and believe in ten years; this space will be looked at like the internet is today, something we all take for granted but made some very wealthy.
 
We can’t easily access crypto or the higher yields on traditional custody platforms today, but if this is something you would like to explore, let’s talk further about it?  I have already done it myself.

​If there is any indicator I can think of that is pointing to the end of the world or at least a market crash it is the Hoosier Football Indicator.  My beloved Hoosiers are ranked for the first time since 1969 in the AP pole.  I said ranked, not rank.  The latter is what they have been the last 50+ years.

If history is any guide, they will fall flat on their faces and underwhelm even their harshest critics. 

​I also believe the fact that they are ranked must be some indication of a Bizzarro world, like on Seinfeld, where good is bad and bad is good.  This can only mean negative things in my estimation for the markets and our economy.  Run for the hills!!

​I have now been managing money for 27 years!  Glad I started when I was 5 years old! 
 
The last twelve years have pretty much been like the weather here in Tampa, the same as yesterday and the day before.  Hot with a chance of afternoon thunderstorms.
 
There is a famous saying that many have uttered and that is “this time it is different.”  Usually before they can finish with the last word of that phrase, they are proven wrong and the markets, economy or just about anything prove that “no – it is not different this time.” 
 
However, this time is different.  You know why!  If you said, all the asset purchases, stimulus, and spending bills.  Give the man a dollar (now worth 1 cent in 1925 dollars due to inflation).

​As you can see from the Buffet Indicator, market wise things are very, very and very expensive by historical standards, but where the government and the Fed are essentially the market, it can go as high as other nations will allow it before we lose the right to print our own currency (i.e., the right to be the reserve currency).  We will lose this right someday, but for now roll them presses!
 
By the way, it would be easy to get nervous about the markets, hide and never make the returns you should make.  This is a great time to have an advisor as we typically have processes that keep us invested and you making money up until the bitter end when we all try to hit the exit at once.

(Tampa, FL) InTrust Advisors, Inc. is pleased to announce Keith Hruby, MSF, AAMS® as the newest member of our team.
 
According to Jeff Diercks, the Founder and Managing Director of InTrust Advisors, "Keith brings valuable experience having served affluent families across the country.  Keith brings a comprehensive understanding of tax and investment planning and how they relate to developing a holistic, effective financial plan."
 
Mr. Diercks said further that "Keith has 10 years of experience working with affluent families and business owners providing specialized counseling in the areas of cash flow management, retirement planning, stock options and employee benefits, insurance, investments, income taxation and charitable planning."
 
Keith began his career as a commissioned officer in nuclear submarines following his graduation from the United States Naval Academy.  His military tours took him all over the world, including two deployments to the Western Pacific, a tour in Naples, Italy on the staff of the Commander, U.S. SIXTH Fleet, and a tour in Yokosuka, Japan on the staff of Commander, U.S. SEVENTH Fleet.  He later was recalled to active duty to teach Finance and Economics at the U.S. Naval Academy, his Alma Mater.  Keith was a Financial Advisor with Raymond James prior to joining InTrust Advisors.
 
Keith’s unique skill set will enhance firm initiatives in helping clients maximize after-tax income through wise tax and investment planning.  His passion is structuring charitable giving in order to minimize taxation of assets and maximize the impact to non-profit organizations.

InTrust Advisors is a boutique multi-family office located in Tampa, Florida that works to remove the burden of planning and day-to-day management of complex tax, investment and estate structures for high net worth families nationally.

​Just a few weeks ago, the headline risk was all negative.  The narrative was that Covid-19 was spreading throughout the world in a second wave.  Countries were closing down again.  Would the U.S. be next to close down like in early 2020 and it was rumored this would most likely happen with a Biden win?
​

Speaking of the Presidential Election, the main-stream media did a pretty good job of fear mongering regarding that election.  What if Trump won?  Would there be rioting in the streets and general unrest?  The narrative went that such unrest could be very negative for your portfolio and for America!
 
Turns out the Trump has not won (at least not yet as he pursues legal action in various swing states).  Instead, Joe Biden appears to be the overwhelming favorite to assume the role of President come January.
 
Then recently, Pfizer announces a possible vaccine for Covid-19 with 90% effectiveness. Stocks of course are rallying like there is no tomorrow on the news and breaking to fresh highs clearing technical hurdles that just a few days ago we thought might lead to a market reversal.  

​The cynic in me wonders if Pfizer had a possible vaccine prior to the election but waited until Biden’s win to announce the trial effectiveness, but I digress.  Maybe it’s just me, but it seems the good news is now coming in batches.
 
No matter the reason, my point here is that the market will do what it wants.  It is an untamed animal that requires it be followed, not forecast. 
 
Why Forecasting Doesn’t Work?
 
Have you noticed how many guests on CNBC are clamoring to give their market forecast?  The reason is that it cost them nothing to do so, but if they are lucky enough to get it right, it could change their standing forever.
 
As I think back over time, I can remember a CNBC guest named Elaine Garzarelli.  She was credited with calling the bottom of the 1982 and 1984 Bear Markets and the top of the 2000 Bull Market.  However, where is she today?  I don’t even know.  You rarely see her anymore on any news channel.  I can tell you it’s pretty hard to get the calls consistently right or we would hear more from or about her.
 
The constant flow of news and changing market conditions is what makes forecasting markets so tough.  As an example, we have been using a service called Hedgeye to provide us fundamental data on global economies and the markets.  The founder of this group is a pretty brash guy named Keith McCullough.
 
He and his group are constantly updating their subscribers on the economic quad that they believe the data is telling them that we are entering.  Mr. McCullough bad mouths the Old Wall and investors who see the markets differently.   ​

​However, like Elaine Garzarelli before him, the constant change in the market narrative, the amount of market control now exercised by global Central Banks and the monetary policy (stimulus) that governments keep implementing has made their forecasts all but worthless.  We recently cancelled our agreement with them as a result.
 
The Key to Success
 
We continue to believe the key to success is to follow the market until it tells you the trend is reversing.  We call this Trend Following and it is something that is built into every portfolio we run. 

It is not perfect, and we usually give up some upside and give back some profits waiting on the signals.  However, it is a discipline and allows us to stay focused on the trend and not the short-term noise.
 
We like it for a number of reasons:

1. We are not just buying and holding through everything, which I believe may be a disaster over the next decade;
2. We have specific models that help put some science in the art of investing and give us a clear process where most managers have a very limited Macro process:
3. It works whether a market is trending up or down; and
4. We can use those models to help us determine how much exposure we should have to the markets.

This latter point I believe is one of the most important.  When the election approached, our models had us reduce exposure, which is good money management.  However, those same models did not have us out of the market.
 
Now that the market is rallying again, we are participating in the rally and not sitting on the sidelines.  Had some of the doom and gloom occurred that we mentioned previously, we would have limited downside risk. 
 
We may now be underperforming on the upside as we look for the right time to possibly add back some exposure, but we did what our clients pay us to do and that is to “manage risk” first and foremost and generate positive returns as a secondary goal.
 
Maybe our process could help you?  If so, please click here for a free consultation.

First, off what is a family office? 
 
“According to Forbes, a family office performs centralized management or oversight of investments, tax planning, estate planning, and philanthropic planning.  Perhaps the simplest definition of a family office is an organization that assumes the day-to-day administration and management of a family's affairs.”
 
In our case, we do those functions for multiple families thus the multi-family tagline.
 
We are boutique in that we are small and intimate, like a boutique hotel in your favorite travel destination or an old fashion family doctor.
 
Finally, we are virtual in the fact that we work with a group of your professionals or those outside professionals we may introduce to the process to facilitate your planning and structure management.

​So now the part you may care about.  The answer to the question “why do I care?”
 
The simple answer is that most advisory or wealth management firms just do basic financial planning and investment advisory for the masses. 
 
They do not offer the next level services to actually help you manage the structures they helped put in place. 
 
We can do more to help you remove those management burdens, while delivering more peace of mind.
 
Check out this list of possible services we offer our clients in addition to wealth planning and investment advisory services:

​As the complexity of our families' needs increase, so do the breadth of the services we can offer including the pinnacle of such offerings, family office services.

None of this is one size fits all!  It is all customized to your needs, whether large or small.
 
In the case of the family office and family owned business services, we don’t even need to manage your investment assets to help you.  
 
Everything is a la carte and customized to your needs, just like a fine boutique hotel or the type of service provided by an old fashion family doctor.
 
How can we help simplify your life today?

For clients and interested parties, this video highlights some of the recent changes to the way we see and invest in the markets and highlights ancillary services we have added.