Is it the End or Greatest Opportunity Ever?

I finally got around to putting out a new blog post, I must say I struggled to come up with just the right topic that would both interest me and our readers.  I wanted to do a financial planning related post, but over the weekend I changed my mind. I was drawn to a video debate between Macro specialist Raoul Pal of Real Vision and Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Asset Management.

This rather long video is posted, below. I thought the discussion was so important for investors over the next 6+ years that I would make it part of my discussion and forecast on what is coming in this very strange time in our country and economic future.  
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​In case you don't have 3 hours to spend watching this video, let me give you the highlights.

The primary topic of this discussion was Bitcoin and its role in the current economic landscape. Let’s delve into some key points from their debate:
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1. Bitcoin’s Role: Raoul Pal views Bitcoin as a solution to the challenges posed by inflation and currency debasement. He praises its scarcity and network effects as valuable attributes.
2. Skepticism from Peter Schiff: On the other hand, Peter Schiff expresses skepticism towards Bitcoin, citing its lack of intrinsic value. He questions whether it can truly serve as a reliable store of wealth.
3. Blockchain Technology and Stablecoins: The conversation also touches on the potential of blockchain technology for tokenizing assets and creating stablecoins.  Here again, Raoul Pal is constructive.  Peter Schiff is skeptical, especially of stablecoins.
4. Economic Landscape: They discuss the impact of debt, the economy, and the fear of worst-case scenarios.  Specifically, both men agree that we are pretty much screwed, but that the politicians will continue to do what they do best and that is kick the can down the road with more currency debasement and the Federal Reserve with more purchases of the related debt generated from that deficit spending.  They will try to mask the related inflation through yield curve controls and other means, but there will be inflation and it may become hyperinflation eventually.  
5. The Case for Crypto: Raoul Pal makes the case that the reason they will continue to print is that the Baby Boomers have all the assets.  If asset prices go down, this will kill the Baby Boomers and create a big problem for society.   He further makes the case that we had a very similar issue at the end of World War II with large debt relative to GDP and we worked our way out via productivity and savings gains.  He believes AI (i.e., artificial intelligence) will provide the productivity gains this time around.  Peter Schiff was not quite so sure and argued that the demographics and debt levels are quite different this time around from the period in history.
6. Crypto is the Only Option: Interestingly Raoul Pal believes the only assets that will outpace inflation will be technology stocks and crypto.  Crypto he believes has the best historical returns and therefore is the Big Opportunity for investors over the next 6 plus years to make big returns before the structure changes.  Specifically, Raoul Pal believes 2030 is when things change. 
7. Bitcoin Price Prediction: While Raoul Pal sees the potential for Bitcoin to reach $1 million, Schiff remains cautious and more constructive on gold and silver as a store of value.

So now let me put in my 2 cents. 

First, I am in agreement with both Raoul Pal and Peter Schiff that politicians will continue to print currency and tax us as a way of kicking the can down the road on the United States rapidly growing debt problem and poor demographics.  They will always do what is easy and gets them reelected.  Printing, spending and then taxing us is the easy path vs. austerity measures to fix our debt to GDP imbalance.

Second, I believe Bitcoin and Crypto are part of the solution, but not "the solution."  Why?  a) Bitcoin is correlated to the equity markets and is a very volatile asset type.  Pushing all your chips into this pile will definitely cause you some sleepless nights.  b) There is governmental risk here.  Any day we could wake up and the government has either outlawed crypto or mandated a conversion to a newly issued Central Bank Digital Coin (or CBDC); and finally, c) I still believe diversification has value and crypto is not a very large, or liquid market.

Third, I would make the case that 2030 is an important year in Raoul Pal's mind, even if he never explained why.  Allow me to speculate, it is the year that the World Economic Forums (WEF) 2030 Agenda is supposed to be in place.  This could mean a new economic system is in place by 2030 that changes/saves the developed world from a new universal problem with debt relative to GDP and poor demographics.

In case you are not familiar with the WEF 2030 agenda, here are the highlights:

1. Climate Action and CO-topia:
   • By 2030, they aim to win the fight against climate change. Imagine a world where CO2 emissions are significantly reduced, the air is cleaner, and nature is recovering.
   • In this vision, cities are green and live able. Private cars are banned, replaced by efficient mobility services. Electricity is entirely green, and single-use plastics are a thing of the past. Citizens have more free time and better quality products.
2. Reducing Violent Crime:
   • Over the next decade, they believe there is an opportunity to dramatically reduce violent crime.
   • To achieve this, they need the same energy and dedication that eradicated killers like smallpox.
   • Understanding how violence is distributed in time and space is crucial. By addressing lethal violence, society can halve most forms of violence by 2030.
3. UN’s 17-Step Plan:
   • The United Nations has resolved to end poverty and hunger everywhere by 2030.
   • Their agenda includes combating inequalities, building peaceful and inclusive societies, and promoting human rights and gender equality.

You can click on any of the links for more information.

Here are my thoughts on this WEF 2030 Agenda.  Basically, the WEF is composed a who's who of global leaders that think they know better than us or any individual government what is best for us and them.  It is the "them" part that worries me the most.

The above agenda sounds great in a vacuum, but the primary purpose of this agenda is the separate the elite from the serf (i.e., you and me) and make us subservient to the corporate elite.  The result will be a highly advanced, AI based society where every move you make, financially or otherwise, is scrutinized.  Every word or deed out of line with the thoughts of the elite will be penalized (i.e., social credit scoring).

My belief is that by 2030 a CBDC or series of CBDCs will be rolled out globally.  These CBDCs may not be universally utilized, as is now the case in China, but the infrastructure will be there.  Given that the backbone of the CBDCs will be blockchain based all activity will be captured, stored and reviewed using AI.  The only thing missing will be an event, a crisis pushing everyone into CBDC or the global system.  This I believe is the change that Raoul Pal sees in our future but was unwilling to speculate on it as I have done.

So why do I present this video, agenda and hypothesis to you? 

The answer is simple and that is so you can take advantage of what is available today to create wealth and provide yourself a greater runway to operate in a possible new financial system to come.  Further as a Christian believer, it is a bit of a warning as the Christian Bible talks about such a time where there is both a one world currency and a one world leader.  No one knows the timing on this stuff, but I can certainly see the seeds of what is potentially coming.

So now how do you prosper in the next six plus years to come?  

Here is my take:

1. You must have crypto in your portfolio.  Raoul Pal is correct it has generated and may yet continue to generate returns well in excess of inflation, which I expect the latter will likely increase significantly through 2030.
2. Unlike Raoul Pal, I do not believe in this as a sole investment option.  There are just too many risks.  So, I would augment crypto with gold, silver, commodities and other hard assets that will also go up in value with inflation and possibly by more than that inflation rate.
3. Equities have historically prospered in a hyperinflationary environment.  Those that produce significant free cash flows have historically done the best, while those negatively impacted by higher borrowing costs via higher rates have suffered.  That has become technology to a large extent, and they will certainly benefit from AI.
4. You must get out of debt.  The bible says the borrower is servant to the lender.  That will become increasingly true as we move into the latter half of the decade.
5. You must own assets.  Just earning a good wage will not allow you to stay ahead of rising costs.  If you are not saving today, now is the time to get started.
6. Finally, I do not believe this will be a smooth ride.  The ability to have both passive or buy and hold assets and those that are traded out of significant declines (i.e., active investment management) for the markets or crypto will be an advantage.  Again, it's about being diversified by both the assets you hold and the way they are managed. 

Where can we help?  We can help you with all of the above as well as financial planning.  Want to start a conversation, click here to contact us.